Persistfolio Market Conditions
Understand what’s happening beneath the market headlines — measured directly from corporate filings, market data, and Fed data.
Current Picture
U.S. equity valuations are unusually high relative to their long-term historical range. Corporate free-cash-flow margins remain within their typical historical range, while FCF conversion is unusually low. Capital investment remains unusually high. Financial conditions and inflation are within their typical historical ranges. Real interest rates are unusually high, while the yield curve is positively sloped after the earlier period of inversion. The S&P 500 remains above its 200-day moving average (6.4% above).
Conditions Overview
Market Behaviour
down 1.9 percentage points from previous month
Valuation
Very High relative to its historical range · 99th percentile · down 0.54 from previous month
Corporate Economics
Typical relative to its historical range · 71st percentile · unchanged from previous month
Very Low relative to its historical range · 0th percentile · unchanged from previous month
Very High relative to its historical range · 94th percentile · unchanged from previous month
Financial Conditions
Typical relative to its historical range · 30th percentile · down 0.01 from previous month
Inflation
Typical relative to its historical range · 42nd percentile · unchanged from previous month
Rates
Target range — no historical percentile applies
Very High relative to its historical range · 99th percentile · up 0.3 percentage points from previous month
Typical relative to its historical range · 29th percentile · down 0.1 percentage points from previous month
Evidence & Historical Charts
Where each measurement sits in its own real historical series, through this snapshot’s date. Expand any measurement to see the full chart.
S&P 500 vs 200-day average
The S&P 500's current price compared with its own average price over the last 200 trading days — a common way to describe whether the market is trading above or below its recent trend.
CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted P/E)
The S&P 500's price divided by the average of the last 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings. A long-term valuation measure that smooths out short-term earnings swings.
FCF margin (Free Cash Flow Margin)
Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditures) as a share of revenue across S&P 500 companies. Shows how much of each dollar of sales converts into cash after funding operations and investment.
FCF conversion (Free Cash Flow Conversion)
Free cash flow as a share of net income across S&P 500 companies. Shows how much of reported accounting profit is actually realized as cash.
Capex / revenue (Capital Expenditures / Revenue)
Capital expenditures as a share of revenue across S&P 500 companies. Shows how much companies are spending on property, plant, and equipment relative to their sales.
NFCI (National Financial Conditions Index)
The Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index — a composite measure of how loose or tight financial conditions are across money, debt, and equity markets. Zero represents average conditions; negative values indicate looser-than-average conditions, and positive values indicate tighter-than-average conditions.
Core CPI, year-over-year
The year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index excluding food and energy — a commonly used measure of underlying inflation trends.
Fed policy rate
The federal funds target range set by the Federal Reserve — the rate banks use for overnight lending to each other, and a key reference rate for the broader economy.
10Y TIPS real yield (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities)
The yield on 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities — the return investors receive above inflation for lending to the U.S. government over 10 years. Because TIPS principal adjusts for inflation, the yield provides a market-based measure of the real, inflation-adjusted interest rate.
10Y–2Y Treasury yield slope
The difference between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields. Positive means longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates; negative ("inverted") means the opposite.
What Changed?
September 2026 vs August 2026
Fed policy rate
3.75% → 4.00%
Up 0.25 from previous month.
10Y TIPS real yield
2.42% → 2.68%
Up 0.3 percentage points from previous month.
Global Market Context
How U.S. market performance is changing relative to other major equity markets.
1. Rolling 3-Year Annualized Returns
Shows rolling 3-year annualized total returns for the U.S. (SPY), Canada (EWC), developed international (EFA), and emerging markets (EEM), in USD.
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2. Rolling 3-Year Return Relative to U.S.
Shows rolling 3-year annualized returns for Canada, developed international, and emerging markets relative to the U.S. A positive value means the market outperformed the U.S.; a negative value means it underperformed.
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3. Valuation Relative to Equilibrium
Shows each region’s valuation relative to its own historical equilibrium, based on the reconstructed RBC GAM series. A positive value means valuations are above historical normal; a negative value means they are below historical normal.
Source: RBC GAM Global Investment Outlook / Market Outlook / regional companion reports, August observations, 2020–2025 (reconstructed dataset).
Historical Snapshots
What did market conditions look like at a particular point in time? Select a month to view that snapshot as it was reconstructed.
These measurements describe current conditions relative to their own historical comparison windows. They are not predictions, recommendations, or buy/sell signals. Methodology