Persistfolio Market Conditions
Understand what’s happening beneath the market headlines — measured directly from corporate filings, market data, and Fed data.
Current Picture
Corporate free-cash-flow margins remain within their typical historical range, while FCF conversion is unusually low. Capital investment remains unusually high. Financial conditions and inflation are within their typical historical ranges. Real interest rates are unusually high, while the yield curve is positively sloped after the earlier period of inversion. The S&P 500 remains above its 200-day moving average (3.7% above).
Conditions Overview
Market Behaviour
down 2.3 percentage points from previous month
Valuation
No historical CAPE value available for this month
Corporate Economics
Typical relative to its historical range · 71st percentile · unchanged from previous month
Very Low relative to its historical range · 0th percentile · down 0.4 percentage points from previous month
Very High relative to its historical range · 100th percentile · unchanged from previous month
Financial Conditions
Typical relative to its historical range · 41st percentile · up 0.06 from previous month
Inflation
Typical relative to its historical range · 45th percentile · up 0.1 percentage points from previous month
Rates
Target range — no historical percentile applies
Very High relative to its historical range · 98th percentile · down 0.3 percentage points from previous month
Typical relative to its historical range · 33rd percentile · unchanged from previous month
Current Sector Conditions
What sectors are driving the current aggregate corporate-economics readings, today. Current sector membership and classification only — not a historical comparison.
Among current sector readings, the clearest concentration differences are: Communication Services accounts for 12% of covered revenue but 29% of aggregate capex; Health Care accounts for 23% of covered revenue but 5% of aggregate capex.
| Sector | FCF margin Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditures) as a share of revenue across S&P 500 companies. Shows how much of each dollar of sales converts into cash after funding operations and investment. | Revenue vs. FCF share | Capex/revenue Capital expenditures as a share of revenue across S&P 500 companies. Shows how much companies are spending on property, plant, and equipment relative to their sales. | Revenue vs. capex share | FCF conversion Free cash flow as a share of net income across S&P 500 companies. Shows how much of reported accounting profit is actually realized as cash. | Net income vs. FCF share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care | 6.7% (agg. 9.9%) (prev 6.7%, change: +0.0pp) | 1.8% (agg. 7.8%) (prev 1.8%, change: +0.0pp) | 121.2% (agg. 86.9%) (prev 130.4%, change: −9.2pp) | |||
| Industrials | 9.7% (agg. 9.9%) (prev 9.7%, change: −0.0pp) | 4.2% (agg. 7.8%) (prev 4.2%, change: +0.0pp) | 95.1% (agg. 86.9%) (prev 95.2%, change: −0.1pp) | |||
| Consumer Discretionary | 6.6% (agg. 9.9%) (prev 6.6%, change: +0.0pp) | 9.2% (agg. 7.8%) (prev 9.2%, change: +0.0pp) | 80.0% (agg. 86.9%) (prev 79.5%, change: +0.5pp) | |||
| Communication Services | 17.2% (agg. 9.9%) (prev 17.1%, change: +0.2pp) | 18.9% (agg. 7.8%) (prev 18.6%, change: +0.3pp) | 71.8% (agg. 86.9%) (prev 72.4%, change: −0.6pp) | |||
| Consumer Staples | 5.3% (agg. 9.9%) (prev 5.3%, change: −0.0pp) | 3.1% (agg. 7.8%) (prev 3.1%, change: −0.0pp) | 107.7% (agg. 86.9%) (prev 107.6%, change: +0.1pp) | |||
| Materials | 5.7% (agg. 9.9%) (prev 6.1%, change: −0.4pp) | 9.8% (agg. 7.8%) (prev 9.6%, change: +0.2pp) | 83.4% (agg. 86.9%) (prev 89.3%, change: −5.9pp) | |||
| Information Technology | 21.4% (agg. 9.9%) (prev 21.4%, change: +0.0pp) | 8.1% (agg. 7.8%) (prev 8.1%, change: −0.0pp) | 93.8% (agg. 86.9%) (prev 93.8%, change: −0.0pp) | |||
| Energy | — (prev 9.5%) | — (prev 8.6%) | — | |||
| Utilities | −6.5% (agg. 9.9%) (prev −6.5%, change: +0.0pp) | 35.5% (agg. 7.8%) (prev 35.5%, change: +0.0pp) | −63.1% (agg. 86.9%) (prev −63.1%, change: +0.0pp) |
Coverage & participation detail
Health Care (60 current members): FCF margin coverage 92.3%, participation 96.7%; FCF conversion coverage 92.3%, participation 96.7%; capex/revenue coverage 92.3%, participation 96.7%.
Industrials (83 current members): FCF margin coverage 99.9%, participation 94.0%; FCF conversion coverage 100.0%, participation 94.0%; capex/revenue coverage 99.9%, participation 94.0%.
Consumer Discretionary (47 current members): FCF margin coverage 99.4%, participation 97.9%; FCF conversion coverage 98.2%, participation 95.7%; capex/revenue coverage 99.4%, participation 97.9%.
Communication Services (22 current members): FCF margin coverage 99.4%, participation 77.3%; FCF conversion coverage 99.4%, participation 77.3%; capex/revenue coverage 99.4%, participation 77.3%.
Consumer Staples (34 current members): FCF margin coverage 100.0%, participation 94.1%; FCF conversion coverage 100.0%, participation 94.1%; capex/revenue coverage 100.0%, participation 94.1%.
Materials (24 current members): FCF margin coverage 100.0%, participation 100.0%; FCF conversion coverage 100.0%, participation 100.0%; capex/revenue coverage 100.0%, participation 100.0%.
Information Technology (75 current members): FCF margin coverage 100.0%, participation 90.7%; FCF conversion coverage 100.0%, participation 90.7%; capex/revenue coverage 100.0%, participation 90.7%.
Energy (21 current members): FCF margin coverage 79.4%, participation 76.2%; FCF conversion coverage 78.6%, participation 76.2%; capex/revenue coverage 79.4%, participation 76.2%.
Utilities (31 current members): FCF margin coverage 80.3%, participation 80.6%; FCF conversion coverage 82.8%, participation 83.9%; capex/revenue coverage 80.3%, participation 80.6%.
As of 2026-10-30 — the same date as this page’s current snapshot above. Current sector membership and classification, not point-in-time historical data. No percentile or classification applies to these readings. Change figures compare against the previously published sector snapshot (2026-09-30) — a simple prior-value comparison, not a percentile or historical-range comparison.
Evidence & Historical Charts
Where each measurement sits in its own real historical series, through this snapshot’s date. Expand any measurement to see the full chart.
S&P 500 vs 200-day average
The S&P 500's current price compared with its own average price over the last 200 trading days — a common way to describe whether the market is trading above or below its recent trend.
CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted P/E)
The S&P 500's price divided by the average of the last 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings. A long-term valuation measure that smooths out short-term earnings swings.
FCF margin (Free Cash Flow Margin)
Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditures) as a share of revenue across S&P 500 companies. Shows how much of each dollar of sales converts into cash after funding operations and investment.
FCF conversion (Free Cash Flow Conversion)
Free cash flow as a share of net income across S&P 500 companies. Shows how much of reported accounting profit is actually realized as cash.
Capex / revenue (Capital Expenditures / Revenue)
Capital expenditures as a share of revenue across S&P 500 companies. Shows how much companies are spending on property, plant, and equipment relative to their sales.
NFCI (National Financial Conditions Index)
The Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index — a composite measure of how loose or tight financial conditions are across money, debt, and equity markets. Zero represents average conditions; negative values indicate looser-than-average conditions, and positive values indicate tighter-than-average conditions.
Core CPI, year-over-year
The year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index excluding food and energy — a commonly used measure of underlying inflation trends.
Fed policy rate
The federal funds target range set by the Federal Reserve — the rate banks use for overnight lending to each other, and a key reference rate for the broader economy.
10Y TIPS real yield (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities)
The yield on 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities — the return investors receive above inflation for lending to the U.S. government over 10 years. Because TIPS principal adjusts for inflation, the yield provides a market-based measure of the real, inflation-adjusted interest rate.
10Y–2Y Treasury yield slope
The difference between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields. Positive means longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates; negative ("inverted") means the opposite.
What Changed?
October 2026 vs September 2026
10Y TIPS real yield
2.91% → 2.63%
Down 0.3 percentage points from previous month.
Global Market Context
How U.S. market performance is changing relative to other major equity markets.
1. Rolling 3-Year Annualized Returns
Shows rolling 3-year annualized total returns for the U.S. (SPY), Canada (EWC), developed international (EFA), and emerging markets (EEM), in USD.
Underlying data (JSON) — see the “graph1” field in this response
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2. Rolling 3-Year Return Relative to U.S.
Shows rolling 3-year annualized returns for Canada, developed international, and emerging markets relative to the U.S. A positive value means the market outperformed the U.S.; a negative value means it underperformed.
Underlying data (JSON) — see the “graph2” field in this response
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3. Valuation Relative to Equilibrium
Shows each region’s valuation relative to its own historical equilibrium, based on the reconstructed RBC GAM series. A positive value means valuations are above historical normal; a negative value means they are below historical normal.
Underlying data (JSON) — see the “graph3RbcGamEquilibrium” field in this response
Source: RBC GAM Global Investment Outlook / Market Outlook / regional companion reports, August observations, 2020–2025 (reconstructed dataset).
Historical Snapshots
What did market conditions look like at a particular point in time? Select a month to view that snapshot as it was reconstructed.
These measurements describe current conditions relative to their own historical comparison windows. They are not predictions, recommendations, or buy/sell signals. Methodology